Process is estimating the time that things will take. Now there are two solutions to this. One is to apply a set of rules and good practice. And that's the solution needs to apply apply until you reach the state of being able to apply the second solution which is to get really good at it. Now getting really good at it takes time. So attached to this video are a set of notes on how you can estimate effectively.

But here's my favorite tip. Most people think they are better than average. Wherever you go, it turns out the more than half the population think they are better than average at any one particular thing. So chances are unconsciously, you think you're better than your immediate colleagues are doing your job. And they aren't doing this. Of course, chances are, you're not.

So here's how to get a good estimate of how long things will take you rather than underestimate. Don't estimate how long things will take you estimate how long it will take your colleagues. Do a little averaging, and then apply that estimate to your work. Anyway, enough of simple rules. Let's look at a powerful process for becoming excellent at estimating. Here's what you do.

It's a two step process. Step one, very simple, whatever you do, estimated, if you're going to wash the dishes, then estimate how long it's going to take or whether it'll take me about 20 minutes. So Wash all these dishes. If you're going to drive from one place to another estimate how long it will take, I think it'll take me about three hours. 45 minutes to drive from home to Manchester. If you're going to write a report, estimate how long it will take.

I think this report will take me about two and a half hours to write. Whatever you're gonna do, estimated, that's step one. Step two, okay. Step two, whenever you finish anything, look how long it took you. It took me 22 minutes to do the dishes. Ah, it took me three hours.

40 Minutes to get to Manchester. The report took me three and a half hours. Step three. There is no step three. I said two steps. Now most people would probably think that step three is something like this.

You take the estimate, and you take the actual, you compare the two, and you figure out what you can learn from the difference. Don't need to do that. And I'll tell you why. There are two reasons why we tend to not get our estimates. Right. One, hopefully, most of the time you get them nearly right, but not quite right.

And the fact is, it took 20 minutes to do the dishes. I thought it was gonna take 20 Where did those two minutes go? No idea. I thought I'd get to Manchester in three hours. 45 minutes. I actually got there five minutes early.

What happened? I don't know. The other possibility, of course, is that of course you know why? The estimate was wrong. I thought it was gonna take me 20 minutes to do dishes. It took me 45 minutes.

Why the big gap? Because I dropped a glass it shattered. I had to empty the water. Clear All the glass out carefully. Start again. What do you learn about estimating from?

Nothing? So how can you possibly improve your estimation? Well, here's the magic. You may not be bright enough to figure out where the two minutes went here and the five minutes went there. And you're a bit early on this a little bit late on that. But that doesn't mean that your brain can't cope with that.

Because the human brain is supremely good at one thing, pattern recognition. It's so good at recognizing patterns, but it does it even when there are patterns there to recognize. We look at the clouds and we see fluffy animals. We look at the stars and we see shapes and patterns, and we give them names and call them constellations. There's no patterns in the sky. There's no patterns in the clouds.

And to prove it to you, I'm going to show you some shapes. Take a look at them. What do you see? If you're like most people, your brain is forming a pattern that you cannot unsee your brain is forming the pattern of a wire frame cube. It's not there. Take a really careful look.

And you'll see there are colored shapes on a background. There are no blinds. But of course your brain is so conditioned to look for patterns that it sees those lines even where they don't exist. Now with this bit of magic technology inside your head, what actually happens when we do estimating and we notice the outcomes? gradually, our brain looks for patterns. If there are certain circumstances where we habitually overestimate, our brain will spot back and our estimates will change with time to improve if there are other circumstances where we periodically repetitively underestimate Mike, our brain will spot that pattern.

And our estimates will increase. You can't control this. And it does take time. It takes experience. But if you ask any experienced estimator who is good at doing estimates, the one thing they will tell you is that they've been doing it for a long time, because it is that experience that gives us the ability, a simple two step process for getting good estimates.