Understanding & trading market turmoil successfully!

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Transcript

Hi there, traders. It's been quite some time since I last recorded a video blog. So it seems fitting that given the recent market turmoil that we've seen, since the start of the year that I produce a video where I go through exactly what's been happening in the markets, why it's been happening, and more importantly, how we trade through these sort of conditions successfully, both now. And in the future when these sort of conditions arise again, because as we will know, from looking back through time and history, is economies go through boom and bust cycles continuously. So these sort of conditions will arise again in the future. And what I hope the video will do is better position yourselves for that so that next time we get a similar market terminal, you're able to take full advantage if you haven't already done so this time around.

So unless you've been living underneath a large rock since the start of the year, you'll have noticed that the markets have been fairly volatile. And they've been gripped by panic, fear and uncertainty. And it's not just been the stock markets, we have actually seen reverberations across all financial markets. And there's no better time than right now to see firsthand how interlinked all the financial markets are, and how important it is to have an appreciation of the fundamental drivers of these markets, and the knock on effects and spillovers that we see into the various asset classes. So we have obviously seen stock markets tumbling, so not a great time to be a long term stock investor right now. That's also had a spillover into the commodity sector.

So we've seen the likes of oil continue to drop quite aggressively into the The mid $20 per barrel, which is quite something considering it was 100 Plus, back in 2014. We've also seen gold as an asset search during the recent uncertain times. And this has also had a spillover into the FX markets with a lot more volatility than what I've experienced lately. But there has been certain currency pairs that have been more predictable to trade than others. And we'll have a look at that as we go through the presentation. Now on the surface, I can understand that it may seem very chaotic and unpredictable these these market conditions.

However, they have provided some of the most fruitful and highly predictable market conditions that we've seen in quite some time. So I want to use this video to explain how we're able to better understand these market conditions. And then secondly, better take advantage of them because if you know you understand that While they're taking place, and the reverberations that are likely to form as part of that, you can then really focus in on certain asset classes or certain currency pairs for myself, and for most of you that are FX predominant traders, we can then focus heavily on those currency pairs that are likely to give us the highest probability of success. So that's really what's been going on. It's been pretty public because it's been in the papers. It's been in the been in the news been on the TV.

So it's nothing that we're not aware of. But I think what's the next what is the next all important stage before we go to understanding how to successfully trade these market conditions is to understand why they've happened. So what has caused the market panic and uncertainty? Well, it's five key factors. And the main catalyst, or the trigger point, came on the first trading day of January and it came from China. Now, there was already a few concerns about China and their growth.

But the first trading day of January, there was a release of some Chinese data. I believe it's some manufacturing data. And that came in worse than expected. And it also showed that the Chinese manufacturing sector had entered contractionary territory. So it was no longer expanding. It was now in a contractionary territory, which confirms and really brings home the fact that China is slowing down.

And this created the market uncertainty and panic it said, Well, if China, one of the largest superpowers in the world economy, if they're slowing down, then everyone else is going to be slowing down as well. But it's important to notice that that was just the catalyst. It wasn't the be all and end all but it was the catalyst and then this provided reverberations across a number of other assets. classes. So that was the catalyst which is essentially caused the market turmoil that we've seen ever since that first trading day of 2016. Now, one thing that also suffered and has been suffering for quite some time is oil.

Oil prices have been declining throughout the whole of 2015. But that was mainly due to the oversupply issue. So, oil producers around the world are pumping out millions of barrels of oil every single week. There's an oversupply issue and that has caused the price of oil to fall. What has further dampened and exacerbated that problem is the fact that China's slowing down so if China's slowing down, and key sectors such as their manufacturing sector are also slowing down, there's going to be less demand from that superpower for oil. So not only is there an oversupply issue with oil, there's also an under demand issue with with oil so China's demand for oil has now reduced That has caused a continuation of the fall in oil.

And that, again has had its knock on effect. It's detrimental knock on effect. How is it had that detrimental knock on effect well, energy sectors of these global stock exchanges such as the Nikkei, such as the Hang Seng, such as the s&p 500, such as the UK 100, such as the DAX and the CAC. So global stock markets around the world, the energy sectors have been hit really, really, really hard. Why is that? Well, the companies that make up the energy sector, their profits have had to be revised down because they are earning less money.

They're having to lay off staff, they're having to revise down their projections that economic projections. So energy companies, which are normally most stock exchanges, some of the largest contributors to those stock exchanges, your likes of BP, etc, etc. Those big big energy companies have started to struggle because of that decline in oil, because of the decline in China's growth. So that has meant that stock markets have been heavily affected because some of the bigger players within them have struggled and the energy sector has struggled. So we've seen stock markets falling quite aggressively throughout the first six, seven weeks of 2016. And that has also had another reverberation and negative knock on effect on financial stocks.

Because a few months ago, or several months ago, back in 2015, when all prices were falling, a lot of these energy companies would go to the banks and say, Look, we need a temporary emergency loan. And we need you to lend us a little bit of money to tie us over while oil recovers which we believe as an energy company is going to happen very quickly. Now that didn't happen. oil has just continued to drop like a lead balloon throughout 2016 at very aggressive rate, which is further put the pressure on these energy companies. And now, the market has become concerned that these energy companies, if they go out of business, or they get into real financial difficulties, they are not going to be able to pay back these loans to the financial stocks. And all of a sudden, we have an issue with financial companies having lent all this money to energy companies, which can't be paid back.

So they end up becoming bad loans. So there's further fear around the financial stocks. And then all of a sudden, you've got point five, as you see here is further market decline, because we've got the energy sector really struggling. The financial sector, really struggling. And those two are normally the shining lights of most stock exchanges. So when they're doing badly, the rest of the sectors and the stocks do badly as well.

So that's what's exacerbated and extended and exaggerated the problem with stock markets. So that's what's cool with it's important to understand what's cool is that yes, everyone talks about the Chinese slowdown But that's just one facet that has caused this huge change and shift in the markets mood and the markets attitude. And we've seen obviously that translated through some very, very large drops in stocks, some very, very large moves in commodities. And there has been an inevitable spillover into the FX markets. And we just cannot ignore this. Because it's having such reverberations on the FX pairs and the FX individual currencies, we cannot ignore it, we need to just understand it.

And then when we understand it, we can then act upon it. And it all comes down to what the market environment is. So I'm just going to explain to you what two types of market environment we can get, we can get an either a risk on environment or a risk off environment and this comes down to the investors appetite for risk. So large scale traders and in Investors? Do they want to take risk? And are they comfortable taking risk?

Or are they scared of taking risk? So I'm going to start with risk off, because that's the current environment that we've experienced since 2016. started this is a risk off environment. And as you can see, by the traders face, they are very fearful, very uncertain. And because of that, they are not willing to take risk. So put yourself in the position of that trader, you've got a large large volume of money in stocks, and say some of the riskier assets such as the Australian dollar or another commodity linked currency, let's say you have had your, you've had your millions and millions of investments put into these riskier assets, all of a sudden, the market changes and we start to have a bit of fear and a bit of uncertainty. You are not going to want to keep putting more money into risk and you're probably going to want to pull out your money.

Money from riskier assets, and to put them into safer havens, because it's understandable, you're worried about the future of the economy, you're uncertain about the future of the economy. So you pull money out of riskier assets, which have been giving you a better return, understandably, but you know, you're not too concerned about the return right now you're more concerned about security of funds. So you put that money into safer havens. Now, while we've got the risk off mode, the contrasting environment that we have, when stock markets are doing well, there's no real concerns or there's, there's optimism about the global economy. Then you've got traders who are confident you've got traders who are very certain about the future, and naturally, they are willing to take more risks. So they'll put their their money and they'll move it into riskier assets because there's no point putting it into safe havens because they're not going to get very attractive yields.

What They want to do when they're very confident in the future outlook of the economy is moved them money into assets that are seen as slightly riskier, but the yields that they will get off those riskier assets are normally worthwhile taking that risk in the first place. So it's all about understanding what type of environment, the environment the market is going through. And based on the last slide, all of those factors has led to a very clear and a very critical risk off environment. And that has meant that many, many traders have been fearful and uncertain and when they are that there's certain behaviors that they elicit, that we can then pinpoint and spot to know where money is flowing from, and to, and then when we were able to spot and identify where money big large scale investment money is moving from and to, we can then work out what's likely to get weaker in terms of an asset class and what's likely to get stronger in terms of an asset class and that covers stocks, it covers commodities and it covers FX.

So using stocks as a nice example during a risk off environment because stocks are seen as riskier assets. Yes, they provide a better return over the long term, but they are seen as riskier assets. So during a risk off mentality or risk off environment, investors will pull their money out of stocks are riskier asset and put it into safer havens. Whilst when they're confident about the future outlook and there's a risk on environment, they will start to then move money into stocks and out of safe havens. And that's why stock markets generally generally rise during confident times or risk on times, and they fall during times of risk off. So it's all about understanding the mood of the market and putting yourself in the position of large scale investors and getting a feel for how they are thinking particular time, and more importantly, how they're likely to act on that environmental condition.

So as I mentioned, understanding the mood of the market is really, really key. And we're currently go for a risk off period. So what does that mean? For traders? Well, they are very, very scared, panicky and uncertain. Now, it's not so bad if you've got 100 pound account.

But when you are trading millions, if not billions of pounds of not only your own money, but invest the money as well, you're going to get very scared, very panicky and very uncertain. We've seen what's happening in the global economy. And because of those emotions, and we know emotion is a big, big factor in trading decisions. Because of those emotions. Money generally flows out of riskier assets. So I'm talking about the likes of stocks, and I'm talking about the likes of commodity linked currencies, such as the Aussie and the kiwi and I'm talking about volatile commodities such As oil, money will flow out of those riskier assets, making them weaker.

Generally, when money comes out of an asset, it makes the price weaker. And because traders are scared, panicky, uncertain, what they want to do is, when they've pulled that money out, they want to put it somewhere safe and secure. So money generally flows into safe havens, making them stronger. So it flows out of riskier assets, making them weaker, and it flows into safe haven assets, making them stronger. And what this then does is gives us a very, very good ability to follow the flow of money. And I'm not going to say tradings easy, but this is the simplest way to understand which assets are going to strengthen and which assets assets are going to weaken during certain market conditions.

So we've got to ask ourselves during a risk off period, where is money flowing out of where we know that it's going to be flowing out riskier assets, because traders are scared and fearful. And this will determine what assets get weaker. So whenever we're trading, we want to be understanding, if we're going to be buying or selling a certain asset we want to know will be confident in its ability to get stronger or weaker. So if we're going to buy something, we want that asset, we want to be confident that that asset is likely to get stronger. If we're selling an asset. We want to be confident that that asset is likely to get weaker.

So if we're selling stocks, for example, and we know during a risk off environment, is money going to be flowing out of stocks? Well, of course it is because traders get panicky and they get fearful. So you can sell stocks with much more confidence, knowing that money will be flowing out of them because of that risk off environment. And when it's flowing out of certain assets, because of the high interlink between the various financial markets, we need to know where is it likely to flow into. So this cash isn't just going to go into a black hole, it's going to come out of one asset and go into Another asset, so where is it flowing into, because that will determine what assets get stronger. So again, we know that during a risk off environment, money will flow into safe havens.

We're going to have a look at a few examples of safe havens in the FX markets in a second but an example of a safe haven outside of the FX markets is gold. Gold is seen as a safe haven money will flow into gold when this times of uncertainty fear and panic so you'll notice that the price of gold has been rising very, very strongly since the start of 2016. Because money has come at stocks and some investors have decided to park that money into gold. So that gives you confidence on what to buy and what to sell. So good time to sell stocks over the last few weeks. Have a good time to have sold stocks has been over the last six weeks because of money flowing out of it because of the fear panic and uncertainty.

Good time to buy gold has been over the last Five to six weeks because money has flown into it because of the fear, panic and uncertainty. So it's all about watching and identifying the flow of money and when you can follow and identify that flow of money, it will give you the confidence on what to buy and what to sell. And as a trader, that's what we're always looking for. So in terms of safe havens in the FX markets here are the most popular. So we've got the Japanese yen, we've got the Swiss franc, and we've got the Euro the most popular is the Japanese yen. Why is that?

Well, generally speaking, the Jap Japan as a nation is seemed quite a quite a safe and secure nation because it holds the majority of its international debt. The majority of its debt, as a country is held internally, rather than internationally. A lot of countries will borrow money from other countries, so it puts them at greater risk. There. However, Japan because it holds its debt internally, it's able to control that debt much more soundly. And so a lot of investors see that as a good thing.

So they'll put their money in Japan, using it as a safe haven. The Swiss franc is very politically neutral doesn't generally get involved in too much. Too much conflict. So is also seen as a safe haven. And the Euro is more of a correlated safe haven because of its very sharp correlation with the Swiss franc. So during a risk off environment, money will flow into and make stronger the following popular safe havens, the Japanese yen, the Swiss franc and the euro.

So put yourself in the position of a large scale investor once again. You've got hundred million pounds in stocks, the stock markets are crashing, and there's fundamental reasons why they're crashing. We've got a slowdown in China. We've got issues with oil, and we've got stock markets in the energy and the financial sector that are really struggling. So you're concerned, you're fearful and you're a little bit panicky. And you've also got investors tapping on the shoulder going, What the hell's going on?

So what do you what are you naturally going to want to do, you're going to want to pull out, maybe not all but a large chunk of your investment. So you're going to sell part of your stock investment and you're going to move that into a safe haven of which one of the obvious choices would be the Japanese yen or the Swiss franc. So that flow of money out of the riskier stocks into the Japanese yen safe haven makes stocks weaker, and the Japanese yen stronger. So you'll have seen lately how strong the yen has been, especially against its weaker counterparts. So even though I am long term bearish on the Japanese yen because of what the central bank's bias and stances, I have been a short term buyer of the Japanese yen utilizing its strength against its weaker counterparts. So the short term mood of the market has meant that I've had to shift and change my current View to one of buying the end rather than selling it when the risk off mode moves away and we get calmer and more confident times, then I will look to sell the yen again back in line with the Japanese central bank who are trying very very hard to weaken the yen.

But during times of panic, there's not much they can do to stem the tide of safe haven flows. So whenever you hear me talk about safe haven flows, it means a flow of money into safe havens. So this is part one of what we always need when we're identifying a currency pair to trade. We always want to pair strong against weak here gives us a few of the strongest currencies that we've seen over the last six weeks because of money flowing into them based on safe haven buying. in sharp contrast to that, Here are several examples of risk yet currencies. So during a risk off environment, money will flow out of Makes weaker, the following risk riskier commodity linked currencies and that's what makes them riskier is all of the nations that you see here, Canada, Australia and New Zealand.

They are commodity linked nations and commodity linked currencies. And as we know, commodities are a lot more volatile than other assets. And that's what makes these currencies a lot, a lot riskier than others. So the Canadian dollar, the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar are seen and viewed as by the market as riskier currencies. So during times of uncertainty and panic, money will flow out of them and into the safe havens that we have seen recently. So they will get weaker.

Now during times of risk on sentiment, where the market is very confident about the future outlook of the global economy, then of course, these will generally get stronger because they normally offer better yields. Yes, they riskier, but they provide better yields in good times. However, when we're going through the bad times that we are right now, traders and investors aren't too concerned about the yield. So they're more concerned about security of their funds. And so money will come out of the riskier assets and into the safe havens. So during times of risk off, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar New Zealand dollar will get weaker.

So immediately, we have the ability to do the following, pair them together for maximum effect. So as you can see here, I've just paired them all together the six currencies, I've put them together in their currency pairs. And this has provided or these currency pairs if you go onto charts, and we're going to go into my charts now but if you go into gone to charts, and have a look at these currency pairs over the last six weeks, or since the start of 2016, you will notice that there has been some humongous moves on these currency pairs. So the likes of cat yen, Aussie yen and Kiwi yen shorts, taking advantage of the Former or the first currency pair being weaker than the second being stronger. Why is the first and the format weaker, or they are riskier based currencies, so money flows out of them, making them weaker.

The CAD weakness has been exacerbated by the fact that oil has fallen so sharply. And the Canadian economy is so heavily reliant on oil for its overall growth as a nation. So obviously, with oil falling, that's going to hurt the Canadian economy, and that hurts the Canadian currency. So with all falling so sharply, the cat has also fallen fallen pretty sharply. And looking back through my trades, I would say a good 70% of my trades have been selling the CAD yen currency pair because it has provided the most highly probable trading conditions that I have seen for quite some time the cat ultra ultra weak because of the fall in oil and the fact that it's a risky So money flows out of it. And the yen has been massively strong because of the fear and uncertainty driven by the stock market.

So every time oil fell, and stock markets fail, which has just continued to happen, time and time and time again, that's where I looked to execute a CAD yen trade. You'll notice if you jump onto my YouTube channel, you'll see some of the videos of these casian trades and show you exactly how I executed those trades. But it was always in the backdrop of the fact and the understanding that I was confident that CAD would get weaker against this Japanese yen, stronger counterpart, but the same could be applied to Aussie yen and Kiwi yen. The same with including the Swiss Remember, the Swiss franc is a safe haven to get stronger during times of uncertainty. So generally speaking, whenever the stock markets fell, and illustrated further fear, panic and uncertainty, the Swiss franc would get stronger because money flowed into it as a story. Ivan, it got stronger, especially against the cat Aussie and Kiwi because they are weaker because their risk base currencies, money flows out of them, making them weaker, weaker.

So it's all about pairing a weak currency against a strong one, or vice versa. And then finally, here we have euro, CAD, Euro, USD and euro Kiwi. What do you notice here? Well, the only the only change that we've got here is that the first currency in the pair is now the stronger currency. So the Euro is a safer haven. And so money flows into it, making it stronger.

So that goes against my long term view on the euro. So I am a bear on the euro. I believe it should be weaker than where it currently is. But understandably, I've had to shift my mindset and look at it from a very short term perspective where there's no point trying to try to sell the Euro when clearly it's it's being strengthened and bullied by the fact that money's flowing into it as a safe haven. So the Euro has been started. Other than the cat understandably stronger than the Euro, sorry, stronger than the Aussie understandably and stronger than the kiwi, understandably so some long positions on euro CAD euros and euro Kiwi would have been just as effective as shorts on these Apple mentioned currency pairs.

So all this is is a classic pairing of strong versus weak as you know is probably the key component in my trading approach or vice versa. When fear panic and uncertainty grip the market of course, when more confident times come back to the market, then a role reversal of these rules will be apparent. But for now, during this risk off sentiment, it's all about selling the weak currencies against the stronger ones or buying the stronger ones against the weaker ones of which we can then trade the financial markets or trade the FX markets with laser like vision because we know and can identify very clearly which currencies I'd like to get stronger safe havens and which ones are likely to get weaker, the risk base currency so there's been No point really looking elsewhere. So my whole concentration, I'd say a good 90 to 95% of my trades have included these pairs.

And that goes exactly the same for my students on the mentoring and the course as well. Now the risk to trading these conditions because there's always an element of risk to trading these conditions. And we saw that recently, and the first point there is central bank intervention. We had some chatter over the last couple of days that the Bank of Japan was not happy with the strength of the yen. As we know from looking at things from a fundamental perspective, the Bank of Japan Central Bank of Japan, they want to see a weaker Japanese yen. Why?

Well, they've got a key objective of getting their inflation targets back to 2% annually as soon as possible and they are nowhere near that. And a stronger yen just acts as a headwind to economic prosperity so they have thrown a lot A lot of money at the the economic issues that they are having. And the fact that the market has just disregarded all that work and strengthen the yen, understandably because of because of money flowing into it as a safe haven. They haven't been best pleased. And they have communicated that to the market recently by saying, look, we're not happy with where the prices of the yen it's too strong. We could potentially intervene.

And there was, I believe, on Thursday, last Thursday, there was a very sharp and immediate weakness on the yen for no apparent reason. And that was put down to potential Bank of Japan intervention where they will actively get involved in the FX markets to weaken their respective currency. It's the same for the Swiss franc as well. The SMP the Central Bank of Switzerland have also said the same thing. We do not want to see our currency too strong because it hurts our economic system. Veritate we want to see it weaker.

So they've also said that we will intervene at any time, we're not going to tell you when we're doing it anytime we could intervene and weaken the Swiss franc. So that is a risk to the potential trade that you'd be taking a safe haven. So if we're buying the yen as a safe haven against its weaker counterparts, and all of a sudden the Bank of Japan starts to weaken it, we're not going to have much power in stopping us from taking a loss on that trade. So that's something we got to bear in mind. And one thing that I communicate to my traders on the mentoring service as soon as I heard that chatter, about potential intervention, I said, Be careful trading, the likes of CAD yen, for example, because there's potential for intervention. A few hours later, we got that intervention, so it prevented them from getting caught out there.

Or if they were trading yen base pairs, they were keeping their risk very, very low and very well contained. And what was really nice to see is I saw a lot of guys on the mentoring service shift from understanding that information and being told I'm wounded by that potential intervention, they shifted their approach and said, okay, instead of taking a position involving a yen currency, I'm going to take euro CAD to benefit from the stronger euro against the weak. And that was great to see. Also, it's hard to judge when the mood changes, because obviously, if we're flicking between risk off risk on, it's hard to judge when that mood changes, but generally speaking, I keep an eye on the stock markets and I keep an eye on the likes of oil, when they start to fall with with momentum that generally elicits a risk off mode.

And when they calm and they start to head up higher, that elicits a risk on mode. And it also hard to judge when the fear panic and uncertainty ends because these conditions that we've seen since the start of 2016 have been quite unique because a lot of my traders on the mentoring service they were saying to me, Tom, you never looked at stocks throughout 2015. And that's because we didn't need to, because the market was pretty rational because there wasn't any real concerns about the global Economy everything was ticking along nicely. However, since 2016, started, we have seen a shift in that mood, mainly because of what happened with the Chinese data on the first trading day of January. But there has been a clear shift in mood and we can't ignore that shift in mood. So when that fear panic and uncertainty ends, because it will eventually end it's hard to tell because it will normally gradually die out and start to fade.

And then all of a sudden, we won't have the sharp reactions between risk off and risk on. But right now we are, but we just need to keep keep in tune with the market every single day. And gradually, you'll start to get feel for when the the markets or the risk off environment starts to fade out and then completely ends because once it fades out and ends, there's no point trying to then take advantage of its related conditions so that if the risk off environment ends, there's no point continuing by the Japanese yen, because the market is no longer moving money into those safe havens. So it's important to get a feel for when that fear panic and uncertainty ends and that the only way we can really do that is just tune into the market every single day and get a feel for that. And when it does, then then we'll be less reliant on looking at the likes of stock markets and oil and less reliant on looking at safe havens and risk based currencies.

And then what are the opportunities because there's always opportunities as well? Well, if we get a continuation of the market turmoil and further and further declines in stock markets further declines in the likes of oil and commodities, then we can look for further high probability trades we can expect the likes of the yen to remain stronger the euro and the Swiss. We can also expect further weakness in the risk based currencies such as the Aussie Kiwi and the Canadian dollar. To utilize in our pairing of strong versus weak, and also responsive measures from Central Bank. So, one thing the Bank of Japan as we touched upon in the last slide, the last thing they want is a strong yen. We have seen a decidedly stronger yen since the start of the year.

So the Bank of Japan is not gonna be happy about that. So, potential now has increased quite considerably for the Bank of Japan to do more in terms of monetary policy actions. I'm talking about an expansion of their QE program. So we saw their last meeting, they cut interest rates. So not only have we been a buyer of the yen, we're also at that particular economic event. We were able to sell them because when they cut interest rates, that was a very bearish policy, procedure or policy maneuver, cutting interest rates is currency negative.

So we were able to take advantage of that short term weakness that we saw off the back of that shock, interest rate. cuts into negative territory. But because they've done that, and then since then the market has just made the yen stronger. It has, it has increased the expectations that they will need to do more QE to weaken the yen in a fight back to the strengthening that we've seen in the yen recently. So more QE could provide some very nice opportunities to sell the yen in line with that particular process which is used to actively weaken the local currency that it's affecting. And also, when the risk off mentality goes away and dissipates and dies out and the market comes back to a level of normality and starts to calm again.

What we will have is some very attractive prices across the FX markets. So I'm talking about the likes of dollar yen, which fundamentally speaking, the dollar is a stronger currency than the yen but that hasn't been the case for several weeks now because the yen has got stronger due to the market. missions, the market emotions and being used as a safe haven. So dollar yen has dropped from 126 down to 110. So what that gives us is some very attractive prices to start getting back into some of these pairs because I am very, very bullish on dollar yen obviously not now in the short term, because of obvious reasons but longer term, I'm bullish on the dollar yen because of the dollar being stronger than the Japanese yen. So that's one example of how we got some very, very nice prices across many, many of the FX pairs, meaning that when things do get back to normal, we should have some very efficient levels to then start taking advantage of in line with the longer term fundamentals so plenty of opportunities going forward.

We just need to monitor the situation and decide the best port of call. Okay, so just to summarize this hope you found the video interesting. It's really given you a clearer picture as to what's happened, why it's happened and How you're able to take advantage of these conditions. So just to summarize, Mark market turmoil may seem hard to trade. But in fact, it's actually provided some of the most predictable moves. So, yes, it may seem on the surface quite chaotic.

It's actually very, very predictable as hopefully now you will see. And also, I recommend that you go and have a look at some of the trade videos that I've posted on my YouTube channel, because that will give you a good insight in terms of how I've traded some of those yen pairs, some of the CAD pairs as well. It's very, very important. As I'll keep banging on to you guys, it's important to tune into the mood of the market, because if you don't, you're really trading blind, because you want to know what the mood of the market is so that you can align with the mood of the market and better select those currency pairs that you are wanting to trade and increase the probability of your success. Because when you understand the mood of the market, you will understand the flow of money and you will know where the money is flowing into Making things stronger and out of making things weaker.

With that information, you can then identify the strongest and the weakest currencies. And when you do that, you can pair them together for the highest probability trading conditions. And that is where we want to get to irrelevant of whether we've got risk off or risk on sentiment, where we want to get to, is having the ability to know what currencies are strong, and what currencies are weak in the very, very short term, so that we can then take full advantage of pairing them together, knowing the direction, taking advantage of the direction and increasing our probability of success. So I'm gonna wrap up there, hope you find it interesting. And I will catch up with you, hopefully on the next video blog, which won't be as long as as what you've had to wait for this one. All the very best.

I'll speak to you soon.

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