Creating a trading plan / idea

Learn to Trade the News Placing The Trade
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Transcript

Okay, so we are inching ever closer to physically placing the trade. But before we do that, we need to create ourselves a trading plan or a trading idea of how we want to trade certain economic news events. So we want to get ourselves into a bit of a routine. But before we do that, we want to always know what we will trade, how we will trade it, and when we will trade it well in advance of actually trading it because this will make us proactive and make the physical execution of the trade the easy bit that's just clicking the button. Before we click the button. However, we need to know exactly how we plan to trade an economic news event, what currency pairs we're going to trade, what direction we're going to trade them in, etc, etc.

So the best way to do this is to get yourself into a weekly routine. So the weekly routine is as follows. Now, this looks like a lot of work, but it's actually not Your weekly routine is roughly 1520 minutes, your daily routine 1520 minutes, your hourly routine 1520 minutes in your execution routine 1520 minutes. So it's really not that much of a commitment of time. And essentially, you are very, very time efficient as a news based trader. Why is that?

Well, you know, when you need to be at your charts, ie when certain news announcements are taking place, the rest of the time, you can go off and do whatever you want to do. You're only at your charts for the times where you believe there will be a trading opportunity. And that's always around a scheduled news event. So let's go through this routine. So on a weekly basis, we will use forex factory comm to get high level summary of what news is coming out for the week ahead when it's coming out, and most specifically, what currencies will be affected. And from that point, we can start to get a fair idea of which ones would be ideal to trade.

Main reason for that is remember we'll have a big picture perspective when we What currencies are strong and weak. So we'll then look to trade that strength or weakness with the economic news coming out for the week ahead that affects those specific currencies. On a daily basis, you obviously be coming into the day that you'll be trading that news event and you're going to prepare for that news event in your trading timezone. So check what time the news is coming out what currency will affect and check what happened in the last trading timezone. So, for example, if you're trading the European news that comes out in the European session, you will refer back to the asian session, what happened in the asian session, because that could give you some very, very powerful clues as to what currency pairs you should be trading. For example, if you come to your charts at 7am, London time getting ready for the European session.

If you check the asian session, what happened overnight, and you found that Australian dollar was very, very weak because there was bad data out of Australia immediately that gives you a weak currency pair for The European session. So then, for example, if you get some good pound data in the European session, you can immediately put pound against the Australian dollar for a by trade strong pound, weak Australian dollar, pound us to the upside. So that's why it's important to always check the previous trading timezone to the one that you are in, because that can give you some very powerful clues as to what could be weak, what could be strong, and that is then built into your trading plan in terms of the currency pair you want to select. Then as we get closer to the news event, from an hourly perspective, roughly 20 minutes before the news get prepared, because there's still a little bit of work you need to do.

You just want to get your charts ready with the currency pair that you're planning to trade. Have your squawk turned on and your news gun visible because remember, we want to hear the news as quickly as possible and we want to execute the trade as well. quickly as possible in the last section, we obviously looked at how you set your set yourself up as a professional trader, give yourself a little bit of time to do that. The last thing you want to be doing is preparing for a news event five minutes before and you haven't got any of your resources prepared. So give yourself at least 20 minutes to prepare yourself and get yourself set up because you want to have at least five to 10 minutes where you can just sit and wait and literally have your finger on the button ready to pull the trigger if your trade plan comes together.

And then finally as the execution as soon as the news comes out, you will know straight away whether to take the trade or not and in what direction simply execute the trade as timely as possible. So using the example that I mentioned earlier, with lb Rs, I'm going to go through that in a bit more detail. So we had weaker Australian dollar data overnight coming into the European session. We had good pound data, so we would look to buy pound us as soon as the good UK data came Now if that UK data wasn't good, would we have taken the trade? No, because we'd have had weaker Australian data. And we'd have had strong sorry weak pound data.

So we'd have had weak against weak we never trade when the two currency pairs are exactly the same. We want to get diverse opposites. Okay, so just looking at this from a more specific individual perspective, the weekly routine so we'll look at our forex factory from a high level perspective and start to identify the high impact news events that we need to really be monitoring and trading. From a daily perspective, we can zoom in and have a more specific view as to what's coming out for that day. Remember, we always check what happened in the last trading time zone. So this calendar is set to GMT.

So either been trading the European session, so for example on Friday was coming to my charts at around about seven o'clock in the morning for the 930 News. The first thing I do is check what happened previously. And I can see there that at 230 in the asian session, the retail sales from Australia were very bad. So immediately I'm checking what's happened before to give me a clue as to what would be a stand out currency pair. In regards to the hourly routine, 20 minutes before you want to get yourself well prepared. So get your setup ready.

So as we can see here, you've got your charts, you've got your forex news gone on top of your charts, and you've got your squawk in the background, which is the audio at the same time because we don't know which one whether the news gun or the squawk will provide us with the news quicker. So we have both and then whatever provides us with that news first we will act upon and then as soon as that news comes out, so we'll have audio one will have a news gun we'll be monitoring both as soon as that news hits the hits the wire And comes out, we will then decide within a fraction of a second, whether that that new supports the trade that we're taking all works against it. So if we're looking for good data to buy a certain currency, we would look to confirm that strong data with a positive number and vice versa in the other way.

So let me bring it all together using an example. So trading pound Ozzy long or a by trade on the third of July 2015. So equally routine when I was looking at my weekly routine, I noticed that Friday could be quite interesting. Why could Friday be quite interesting? Well, we had Australian data, and we had pound data and I remember we looked at our bigger picture perspective. We were bearish on the Aussie because of them cutting interest rates and their central bank moving to a negative stance, and we were positive on the pound because of their central bank, albeit slowly moving towards a rate hike and being bullish.

On the UK economy, so immediately, I was saying to myself, potentially, we could get weakness on the Ozzy and strength on the parent, that would be two complete opposites. And that would give me the opportunity to trade pound dollars, which is a currency pair utilizing the strength of the pound, and the weakness of the Australian dollar. Now, I don't trade it just like that. I obviously just plan ahead. That's my thought process where I'm saying to myself, yeah, I'd like to trade pound us if, and this is the key thing if the pound data comes in good. And the Australian data comes in bad, because that would add and support the bigger picture understanding.

So that was on my agenda for Friday. Didn't mean there was a guarantee trade on Friday, but it was on my agenda for Friday. So I was planning in advance in terms of what I wanted to see happen before I trade it. If Australian data came in good and was positive, I wouldn't trade it. And if the parent data came in negative I wouldn't trade it because that goes against the bigger picture. Okay, so then I came to my charts on Friday.

As I mentioned earlier, the European session so I come to my charts I've got my charts around about nine o'clock, preparing myself for the 930 news as we can see here, affecting the pound. Part One of my plan came together so part one of my plan came together so I wanted to see weak retail sales from Australia. Why? Because that would support the bigger picture from Australia. So the Central Bank of Australia the RBA is bearish on the Australian dollar. Bad data keeps the Australian dollar weak.

So coming into the European session, we had a very weak Australian dollar. So immediately saying to myself, what can I pair it against? Well, I only want to pair it against a strong currency. So I then look to the bigger picture the pound is generally strong because of the central bank slowly moving towards a rate hike in the economy. Doing quite well. So if we got good UK data out at 930 that would give me the ability to execute a trade on pound Ozzy utilizing the trading plan of a strong pound good data versus a weak Australian dollar of bad data in combination with the bigger picture also supporting that idea.

But then it came to the hourly rate about 910 London time I got myself prepared for the 930 News knowing exactly what I needed to see before executing an instant by trade on pound Ozzy. I better than expected data. So here was my my trading setup. I had my news gun, I had my squawk, and I have my chart on pound Ozzy, and I was simply waiting for the 930 News. And then when the 930 news came, it was all about into that trade as efficiently as possible. As you can see here, this is the chart of the pound Ozzy on the five minute time frame at the point of the news release when that news came out, and it was good for the parent as we can see on the previous slide, so if we just go back a couple of slides as you can see 58.5 versus unexpected 57.4 it came out much better than expected.

So we had strong, fresh, fresh information from the UK to support the pound. We had bad weak data from Australian from Australia overnight. This supported a pound Ozzy long because remember, thinking about currencies in pairs, the pound is the base. The Australian dollar is the terms the pound is getting stronger than the Australian dollar. So that only means one thing the chart should rise. That's why we buy pound ours and this move lasted for several hours, generating a pip movement of around about 140 pips and I believe But it carried on going over the course of the next week or so.

However, do we need to take the whole the whole ride, not necessarily as a new trade, it's good to get in and get out, generate our profits from those initial fresh information data points, and then look for opportunities at the next opportunity. Okay, so what we want to do is apply this approach every single time build your trading plan ahead of time. So you have an idea of how you want to trade certain news items, identify those news items, which have the potential to move the market know exactly what you need to have happen with the data for you to trade it. So I good pattern data, bad Australian data. And when you get that you can pair strong against weak or vice versa. And do that every single time.

If the news does as you expect, it comes in better as you want it, you can execute the trade in a timely manner, using your resources to give you the most efficient, effective entry into the market. Now if the news does not do as you expect you simply Walk away from that potential opportunity and you look for another one. Okay, so just to summarize, do not underestimate this routine by doing a little bit of work each week up front. And following your routine, you will get very tuned into the market, you will know exactly what currencies are strong, what are weak at any given time, and that will give you the ability to plan those trades where you pair stronger against weak and this will help massively in you being able to select those currency pairs which have the optimum potential for a decent one directional move, and it will increase your profitability of success tenfold.

You'll notice in all of the trade videos that I've taught that I follow that process every single time and the more you do it, the better you'll become. So actually go away and watch some of those trade videos to trade live trade examples and and see the process that I follow every single time and the more you do it, it will just become absolute second nature every single week you'll start to pimp Those trading events where they have the potential to give you those really high probability opportunities. And when you do this, you will then start to realize the the profit potential for each and every single one of them.

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