Well by now, we have seen estimates which is analog which is top down parametric and a bottom. We have discussed their advantage disadvantages when you should be using it why you should be using it, what kind of the estimation those will give. Now, taking a step little further from a bottom of estimation which which is not considering the risk and uncertainty which is B which in the future is a three point estimate. So, the idea is as a human nature we are bad at estimation as a human nature we want to be safe. So, when somebody will ask us the timeline of or duration of a delivery of a task as a natural human instinct, we will put up a little bit of padding a little of unreasonable padding To cover this and that unreasonable, unreasonable part of your padding first come in, because first we'll go into each activity level and we'll identify the uncertainity and there is that could jeopardize this specific activity or that could hit this specific activity and would identify all the possible reserves and all your assumptions that could be risk on this activity that it could go wrong.

So, we have three estimates for every activity and again, obviously when you are working in bottom up bottom up is very expensive time taking unit planning unit information in the same as the situation with the third unit, garbage in garbage out you have to plan well you have to have a good information to identify to work on this pert analysis, pert review technique. So now we have most likely most likely is a timeline as the minute that you are saying that you Yes, we are we are planned for this and we will deliver it without much risk and without any party time extra. So, this is the most likely usually in the evenings, highways are congested. We know that maybe in the daytime attack or travel of at night in evening become 40 minute this is most likely, but even a congested highway, you would not consider our risk of accident.

That is you're pessimistic of what could go wrong. The worst case scenario in obviously the worst case scenario does not mean that you are expect you are in a most likely case saying five and then in a worst case you are saying 50 No, you need to identify all your assumptions all the risk or uncertainty that could go wrong on this on this activity. So then it will come as a false pessimistic and Then obviously, fastest possible time all the optimistic estimate is virtually you say that yes, usually highways are congested at five and you just leave at 430 and 445. And you bypass all this rush and the time. So this is the fastest possible time it is when you open the laptop, you want to do a presentation and then it is like everything is coming in your mind or your keep on doing any tests done in fastest possible time and you are happy with your output.

So this is how the most likely optimistic and pessimistic estimates are identified. When we will work on these estimates in two possible ways we will have the calculated buffer, not unreasonable and movable buffers but reasonable, calculated buffers which we'll add in Define based on the risk that you have already identified that this activity could go wrong because of the risk and then somebody will take those risk and they will discuss and they will identify the mitigation plan on the risk response, whatever. But the point is you are actually making sure that you have a contingency reserves based on every activity. This is a general introduction for Bert. Next we will see how we are going to use it and where it is referenced in our pm book sets. Thank you very much for your time.